An Imperfect Storm - resilience or ignorance within eight cost shocks
Staying abreast of conditions is a must for resilience. In his latest white paper, Larry Quick discusses eight cost shocks which are now reported daily in mainstream media and what their individual and cumulative impact mean from a resilience perspective.
A free copy of the white paper is available here.
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June 23rd, 2008 at 7:46 am
It seems the term “Perfect Storm” is catching on and some are realising that some of these changes are secular.
http://business.smh.com.au/perfect-storm-in-grains-market-20080622-2uxa.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
July 9th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Thanks for the document. I found it interesting and am including my comments (attached); my summary:
Page 1 paragraph 5 Speak no evil - to what extent does our legal system; particularly, U.S. case law and the entire breadth and matrix of rules that is on the books as a result of law, outright prohibit rapid innovation? There is a resultant legal phobia out there and it has got to be replaced by people whom are not apathetic and down-trodden by working in this system (I speak from local gov’t’s perspective). We need more motivated, risk taking individuals that have their heart in the right place, to assume positions of responsibility and dare I say -MAKE A JUDGEMENT CALL. (read Philip K Howard’s books -10yrs old but still relevant)
Page 1 paragraph 6 - following up on what I said above, the reason we have plans with 20 year ranges is because of the above. With all the rules, it takes 20 years to build a simple bike path. The only way to test innovation within complex systems involving gov’t, business and populations is to relax some rules. The question is which rules? Perhaps the Judicial branch of government will rule differently in favor of GREEN CASE LAW and help us out if you know what I mean.
Page 1 paragraph 7, I agree that the perils of our time are unprecedented, then so are the opportunities; and so the policy reforms will seem drastic too. For example, here’s an example policy dilemma: Does the U.S. pump billions into Miami (to keep the water out) like it did for the BIG DIG in Boston or, do we collectively decide to give parts of Low sea level areas back to the ocean like New Orleans? Difficult question? Who asks? Who participates in the answer?
Page 2 paragraph 1. Are Americans finally ready to face their moral views about cities and race and socio-economics and accept a new geo-spatial land use pattern that is of higher density and possessive of ample public transit? Is living 50 miles away from a city center analogous to that of a five star hotel choice; meaning, do we charge people different service rates depending on where they live? Should a school bus or fire engine cost more depending on where the government has to travel to provide such service?
Page 3 2nd question from bottom, what’s the new attractors and incentives for innovation investment? I say guaranteed protections from our legal system.
Page 3 bottom question, If we wish to test holistic systems planning, we must pick several cities of vastly different geographies and let them operate as test cases. Let these be the places where people operate (innovate) within a framework that has less rules and insurance paranoia.
Page 4, top question - Again if we are talking about organizational systems on the community scale, I would say that the legal system has effectively equalized all of these examples. Nobody, can get out of their own way in this country - for the moment. It’s hard to believe the empire state building was built in 13 months!!
Page 4 paragraph 3 Einstein also stated that humans have only 4 years of life left after the bees leave us. I couldn’t help but mention this seeing we are within a Colony Collapse Disorder. Turn off your Cell Phones???
Page 4 paragraphs 5 and 6. To what degree does resiliency mean mobility? Particularly in the vein of climate change; certain storms may cause total disruptions…Katrina. In this regard, we can actually learn a lot from the Army, which has mastered how to rapidly relocate many troops. Perhaps we empower the private sector to design innovative mobility plans that can temporarily help many. Look to Wal-Mart for the lead on this, believe it or not, as they know how to move product really fast….protect the bridges for the trucks.
Page 4 paragraph 7. Are we becoming more rigid or is it just those dam rules again. We are certainly stuck in the mud with bureaucracy! Ask Bob Billington how long it took to build the bike path.
Last Page. Is that person Alexander Tytler bs or what? Is this whole thing about Democratic cycles just cynical bs or should it be taken seriously?
A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.
The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:
· From bondage to spiritual faith;
· From spiritual faith to great courage;
· From courage to liberty;
· From liberty to abundance;
· From abundance to complacency;
· From complacency to apathy;
· From apathy to dependence;
· From dependence back into bondage.
Thomas J. Kravitz
Director of Planning & Economic Development
105 Harrisville Main St.
Harrisville, RI 02830
Phone: 401-568-4300-130
Fax: 401-710-9307