The Audacity of Resilience - A Call to Communities

Fred Presley - November 5, 2008

As Barack Obama gave his victory speech last night, I couldn’t help but be moved by the historical significance of the whole event. Electing the first African-American President in US history is an amazing accomplishment for a country that only 4 years ago seemed to be slipping further away from tolerance rather than being drawn towards it. I also found it appropriate that this 2nd US President to come out of the State of Illinois is African-American, while the 1st President to come from that State ended slavery.  Like Lincoln, Obama faces a country in a crisis that will require sacrifices from all of us to overcome. His platform for change and hope provides us all with great opportunity and responsibility to rise to the occasion and be the change we so desperately need. 

This change will require new ways of thinking about old problems.  It will require the elimination of the old industrial mechanistic systems of governments and organizations and the creation of new adaptive and resilient systems that can respond to the complexity of the rapidly changing world in which we live.  Having a President of the United States who can embrace this change (and I believe we now will have that person in Obama), is a great step in the right direction but the change must come not just from the top but from heart of society - its communities.

The cities, towns, and villages of this nation must answer the call and recreate the hope, energy, diversity, creativity, connectedness and wealth that once defined this country but has been dwindling in recent years.  Communities cannot sit back and wait for county, state, or federal government to solve their problems.  In the current economic reality that just isn’t going to happen, nor should it.  A new era of civic responsibility is required.  This responsibility needs to extend beyond the often arbitrary geographic borders of towns and states.  Here the role of state and federal entities can be to help facilitate the relationship and remove unnecessary barriers that inhibit the exchange of information and resources. But it must be the communities themselves and all of the interconnected and interdependent organizations, companies and individuals within those communities that demand more of their government, more of their planners, more of their education systems and more of themselves. 

A year ago, I made a bold move for my family and myself.  I decided to leave public service after 8 years and begin a career in private consulting.  I did this not because I wanted to finally cash in on my years of experience. No, I did this because along the way I was introduced to a new way of looking at government systems, planning and resource management that actually worked.  After 8 years at state and local government jobs, first working for the environment and later as the Director of Planning and Economic Development for a local community, I had been extremely frustrated by the sheer inability of the systems that were in place to deal with the complexity of the issues that they were supposed to address.  More often than not these systems ultimately exacerbated the problems they tried to solve. 

Then I had the good fortune of being involved in a coastal resources project facilitated by an Australian man named Larry Quick.  Larry took the group through a process that seemed on one hand foreign and abstract yet somehow intimately familiar and true at a deeper level of understanding that I would only over time appreciate.  When I went to work as Director of Planning and Economic Development for a local Rhode Island community, I called Larry and asked what he thought about using this process around community planning and economic development.  He loved the idea and off we went.

What became clear to me over the coming months was that the organizations and people were not the problem.  The problem was the systems they were working with and processes (or lack there of) they used to deal with changing conditions. A new way of thinking was needed.  This process that Larry brought offered a process that people could use to change their thinking.  And it worked!  So when local political disruption moved me to leave public service, it did not take long for me to realize my path.  This is the change that communities and organizations needed.  And I know it works.  The more communities and organizations that we can get using this process, the more rapidly we can get real needed change happening. 

Over the last year, The Resilient Futures Network was born.  It was born from the thinking that Larry had developed over his many years of business strategy, economic and community development, and complex adaptive systems thinking.  I joined up with Larry as did as did David Platt, Paul Houghton, and Todd Davies to round out a diverse and passionate group of thinkers whose mission is to change the world by changing the way that leaders, companies, organizations, communities and nations think and act in this rapidly changing world. And ultimately, to move the world toward a resilient future.          

Listening to Barack Obama last night reinforced in me the reason why I left the security of government employment and turned down high paying corporate positions: the change we, of the Resilient Futures network, are trying to create is desperately needed.  It may take some time and effort (and sacrifice) to get people, organizations and communities thinking in ways that will create this change but it is too important not to try.  As Obama stated last night, the challenges we face are “the greatest of our lifetime — two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. ”  To face these challenges we must become resilient. The Resilient Futures Network definition of resilience is whole systems, proactively self-transforming in a flow with changing conditions, and prospering.  The process is not simple or easy but real change seldom is.  We need to ‘change’ how we do business.  Let’s all be that change!

Get engaged in the thinking.  Join the Resilient Futures Network RSS feed today.  Join the discussions and bring others into the conversation.  Yes We Can! 

Related posts

• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• May 21, 2008 — Resilience Planning Course - June 11, Providence, Rhode Island (0)
• October 26, 2008 — AXA, Perpetual, Challenger - As the backloop grows stronger it draws more entities in (4)
• October 20, 2008 — Westerly, RI - A Resilient Futures Discussion October 22, 7:00 p.m. (0)
• August 29, 2008 — Resilient leadership? (3)

The Australian government this week stepped in to guarantee bank loans and deposits. This was implemented as a solution to bank liquidity, and one that is being adopted around the world. The rationale for this was simple enough, lenders and depositors have been spooked by the prospect of defaults, and therefore this measure is aimed to give investors and banks confidence to do business with each other again, and not withdraw existing business. In other words, get credit flowing again, and make sure there isn’t a run on the banks.

This solution was adopted in many countries, and to some extent they had no choice. As part of global system, if you get a state change in one country, you’d better follow suit or end up out in the cold (no Iceland reference intended). And at first blush it seems to have worked. But in Australia, like other countries, this intervention has had unintended consequences. The security provided over bank deposits has effectively created two tiers of security – deposits guaranteed by the government (bank deposits), and everything else.

During the course of the week one analyst put a hold rating on Australian mortgage trusts, resulting in a run on Challenger’s funds, then Perpetual and AXA. By mid-week the phone lines were running hot by depositors to see if they could withdraw their money. The answer to which was clearly “no” – those funds don’t maintain that level of liquidity. In the words of Perpetual CEO on Sunday “On Friday I’ve never seen a call centre like it.”

More crisis meetings have happened at government level, and the guarantees are being capped, emergency meetings are being held next week with the mortgage trusts, more tinkering is likely and those sitting on the sidelines take pot shots at those in charge.

Meanwhile in the United States, former Federal Reserve head Alan Greenspan was summoned to Washington to face accusations by a Senate Banking Committee that he was partially responsible for creating this mess. His response was humble compared to previous appearances.

“A critical pillar to market competition and free markets did break down. I still do not fully understand why it happened.” Greenspan said. When asked about whether there were flaws in his model, he responded “You know, that’s precisely the reason I was shocked, because I have been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence that it was working exceptionally well.”

Clearly, this is different from other downturns and is requiring a different response. We’d suggest that different thinking is also required.

A resilience perspective

Here’s a few of my casual observations from the week’s events using some of the RFN thinking and process. If you haven’t been through the process or want a refresher before diving into this, you might want to watch Larry’s recent video first (27m 14s).

Without resilient thinking in policy development, we will work our way through to economic recovery by trial and error – which is what we’ve done in every other recession in the past.

Now we can’t say we foresaw what happened, nor that we have the solutions, but what we can say is that winners and losers will be determined by those with strong knowledge of conditions and aspects of the resilience model baked into their business or cause. If you haven’t assessed the resilience of your organisation or cause, you may be a putting them at risk, and perhaps joining the list of leaders being held to account as being reckless.

Related posts

• August 29, 2008 — Resilient leadership? (3)
• September 20, 2008 — Financial Markets - Time Out from a Ticking Bomb! (26)
• August 23, 2008 — Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) – Main Event or a Side Show? (7)
• November 6, 2008 — Election Reaction - The Audacity of Resilience (2)
• October 14, 2008 — Real Risks of Business as Usual (0)

“With the election around the corner, local can didates and members of the public are invited to a forum on how the community can best adapt to a changing world.

The Westerly Land Trust is hosting a presentation and dis cussion on “resilience thinking” on Wednesday, Oct. 22. This line of thinking is described as an alternative to “business as usual” and looks ahead to see how the town can position itself to deal with emerging conditions.

Westerly resident Frederick Presley, a certified planner through the American Institute of Certified Planners with over 14 years’ experience in the public and private sector, will lead the discussion. He said he hopes political candidates and mem­bers of the public attend and partake in the conversation.

As the community and country face interconnected challenges ranging from financial con straints to fluctuating energy prices, mounting job losses and the threat of global warming, Presley proposes taking a different approach.

He described resilience thinking as “whole systems thinking” — or a 360-degree view — that involves looking at whether the town, state and nation are able to ade quately confront the com plexity arising around these things.

Other questions include whether the town has consid ered the impact on major infrastructure and planning, and whether it is “prepared to accept the risks we are taking by continuing to treat these issues in isolation, rather than as parts of a whole system,” Presley said.

Presley said he presents “this way of thinking as an alternative to what’s being done now.” The approach is one of anticipating problems and adapting, rather than reacting to them, he said.

Presley has employed some of this thinking as a member of the town’s Blue Ribbon Economic Development Committee and Peak Oil Task Force. He formerly worked as the planning and economic development direc tor for Smithfield.

The workshop is scheduled for 7 p.m. at the Westerly Land Trust headquarters in the Industrial Trust building at 14 High St.

For more information, visit www.resilientfutures.org.”

Related posts

• November 6, 2008 — Election Reaction - The Audacity of Resilience (2)
• August 29, 2008 — Resilient leadership? (3)
• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• July 4, 2008 — July 16, Rhode Island - Resilient Planning with Fred Presley (0)
• May 21, 2008 — Resilience Planning Course - June 11, Providence, Rhode Island (0)

This is essential viewing for anyone in a governance, leadership, assurance or strategy role in a large organisation.  This presentation is particularly timely given current and increasing market turbulence, and the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s reminder that it is expecting CEOs and Boards to have a strong understanding of ‘material business risk’.

As always, comments are welcomed and appreciated.

The Real Risks of Business as Usual
Todd Davies, Practice Leader - Risk
Perth 2008, Duration: 14m 58s
Click to play, or right click to save a copy.  (Quicktime required).
Large (168MB) | Small (60.8MB)

More of our work on strategic risk can be found here.

Related posts

• May 29, 2008 — An Imperfect Storm - resilience or ignorance within eight cost shocks (2)
• August 29, 2008 — Resilient leadership? (3)
• August 23, 2008 — Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) – Main Event or a Side Show? (7)
• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• October 26, 2008 — AXA, Perpetual, Challenger - As the backloop grows stronger it draws more entities in (4)

Planning for Growth, Climate Change and Water Shortages
How resilient is your community and are you managing these types of risk?

The aim of the strategy forum was to introduce participants to a resilience-based approach to complex problem solving and to explore Western Australia’s ability to be resilient in the face of problems such as planning for growth, climate change and water shortages. The forum kicked off a week which marked the beginning of the Resilient Futures Network’s campaign for a Resilient Western Australia – a campaign in response to the need to encourage and promote a different way for government, communities, organisations and individuals to think and act.

The summary-report and the various videos taken during the forum on the 11^th are intended to open up a conversation about our ability - both in Western Australia and as a global community - to be resilient in the face of some of the most serious issues and challenges of our time: water shortages, climate change and planning for growth.

In some ways the words of Jamais Cascio capture the essence of what lies at the heart of this campaign. He said,

“It seems to me that what we should be striving for in an environment — and a civilization — is to be able to handle dynamic, unexpected changes without threatening to collapse. This is more than simply sustainable; it’s regenerative and diverse, relying on both a capacity to absorb shocks and to co-evolve with them. In a word, it’s resilient.”

So the challenge is before us. Can we be more than sustainable? Can we both absorb shocks and co-evolve with them? Can we self-transform in a flow with changing conditions and prosper?

Can we be resilient? Or, do we plod grimly on to the possible future as proposed by Tim Flannery.

“I think there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis. It’s whole primary production is in dire straits and the eastern states are only 30 years behind. (2004)”

As we continue to grapple with challenges such as climate change, water and planning for growth the opportunity is here for us to take the lead in creating resilient strategies out of which local communities can make well-informed and supported decisions about how they will tackle complex problems.

If we are to be resilient, if Western Australia is to be resilient, then we must re-think what we do and how we do it. And, we must do this thinking and doing as a network of committed organisations and individuals.

This then, as much as anything is an invitation to connect, a call to action. Read the summary report, watch the videos, use the forum to post your thoughts and insights, suggest alternatives, share your stories, tell us what you’ve learned and what you think.

Most importantly however, please don’t sit by and wait for someone else to do it. We have waited until now and “they” haven’t done it yet – and it doesn’t look like “they” will.

Now, it is up to us.

Join the network and commit to a Resilient Future for Western Australia and the world.

Related posts

• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• August 23, 2008 — Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) – Main Event or a Side Show? (7)
• October 14, 2008 — Real Risks of Business as Usual (0)
• May 21, 2008 — Resilience Planning Course - June 11, Providence, Rhode Island (0)
• April 18, 2008 — Risk, Governance & Assurance (0)

Its Saturday morning, September 20th 2008, and the goings on in global financial markets appear to have taken a breather. The Dow Industrial was up 370 points on Friday in response to moves by the Federal Reserve, the S.E.C. and the Treasury to stabilize money markets. Similar moves have taken place in Europe to quell the bursting bubble. And the world goes to the weekend break with a sense that their financial future is in good, or at least better hands.

Let’s hope so. And lets hope that those responsible for the debacle and the (hopefully) ‘rescue’ know what they are doing.

Having said that I am drawn to thinking about a paper I authored in May 2008 and published on the resilientfutures.org site in early July 2008 - “An Imperfect Storm - Resilience or Ignorance Within Eight Cost Shocks”. In that paper I highlighted that among other key global systems, the financial system is badly broken, and would cause a major cost shock throughout the world. Under the heading of “The credit crunch, a broken financial system, and the real cost of superficial value” I asserted, “The subprime is an example of this. Superficial value created with ‘liar loans?, overpriced housing and worthless mortgage securities. All of which created huge social and economic cost both within and outside the financial system”. 

In the last three months a lot has been said and done, but I am still left with this feeling that what has been done will do little to heal not only the immediate impact, but the real underlying state of a badly broken system. Bailing out through government/taxpayer means or corporate pressure and hawkish takeovers to save the likes of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, HBOS and AIG is not the ultimate answer. Our situation is more complex than that. What is needed is a complete overhaul of the system. George Soros is a large beneficiary and critic of the system. One of George’s fundamental concerns is that credit is dramatically outstripping economic activity. This is code for: people are buying on credit, and incurring substantial personal debt faster than the economic system is creating productive, sustainable and substantive, bankable value (case in point – the sub-prime fiasco). The current financial system relies on this type of superficial value to drive equally superficial consumption to retain an appearance of a fully functioning financial system and economic growth. Like a spiraling snake that eventually eats itself. 

There needs to be a MAJOR change in how financial markets work - and it can’t be done by regulation alone - the industry must be the driver that works how it can make a real buck rather than synthetic securities that prey on the frailty of people caught up in a system that doesn’t produce real and lasting value. If this doesn’t happen, then you can be sure that history will repeat itself and the ticking bomb will explode, this time bringing down much more than can be propped up by the ad hoc and knee jerk reactions of government and taxpayer handouts.

What must also be taken into account, as I point out in the paper, is that a broken financial system is but one of eight cost shocks (and there may be more) that our world is facing over the coming four years. Others include the cost increases associated with water, energy, food, climate change, infrastructure renewal and oil (no, that hasn’t gone away, and won’t). Also, then factor in the convergence and feedback of these types of cost shocks and you have a very different economic and social environment from that of today.

My final plea in the Imperfect Storm paper is not based on doom and gloom. It is a call to arms for innovators and those committed to building a resilient future to understand this unique set of conditions in our history, be prepared to let go of the past sufficiently to create a new and resilient future. My personal mantra spells this out for me - make a difference, make a dollar, and don’t die doing it. Where there is muck there is money, and I think if the financial gurus and their taxpayer-supported mentors are willing to use their creative might we can create a resilient future - one that is prosperous - even out of the load of ‘caca’ we have created for ourselves.

So, on this lovely weekend ahead of us, please take some time out to think of these things. Read the Imperfect Storm paper. Be realistic. Get creative. Be active. Ask yourself - how can I make a difference and make a dollar - and not kill anyone in doing it? For, If you don’t, who will?

Related posts

• October 26, 2008 — AXA, Perpetual, Challenger - As the backloop grows stronger it draws more entities in (4)
• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• June 11, 2008 — George Soros’s New Book - The New Paradigm for Financial Markets - A MUST read for those into resilient markets & RISK - and resilient innovation in a TOTAL State change in the USA (3)
• November 6, 2008 — Election Reaction - The Audacity of Resilience (2)
• October 20, 2008 — Westerly, RI - A Resilient Futures Discussion October 22, 7:00 p.m. (0)

On Thursday 28 August 2008 at The City Recital Hall in Sydney, I paid my $35 and went to “hear it from the Boss” – at AFR Boss Magazine’s annual public event – Resilient Leadership. The ad sold me on the idea of joining “the Boss panel of business leaders in a stimulating discussion of what makes a great leader for today’s turbulent times.” Well, this sounded just my thing, so I went along to listen and perhaps line up to ask a question.

And it was an esteemed panel. Breakfast announcer and brain on two legs - Adam Spencer. Commonwealth Bank Director and the former CEO who led the turnaround of AMP – Andrew Mohl. Australian CEO of National Australia Bank - Ahmed Fahour, responsible for some of that organisation’s turnaround. Patrick Grier - Board Member & former CEO of Ramsay Health Care and responsible for their turnaround story. Elizabeth Ann Macgregor, CEO of Museum of Contemporary Art, Sydney - responsible for turning that organisation around from the brink. And to give us a feel for what people think about, Ipsos’ Australia Research Director Dr Rebecca Huntley. A very esteemed panel indeed.

And the panel was very generous with sharing their stories, their insights and a lot of wisdom. Indeed it was $35 well spent.

As I listened to the stories of this panel, we heard great stories, stories about leadership and culture, bringing things back from the brink, tenacity, personal determination. Great stuff.

But no event seems complete for me these days unless I’ve tried to spot an elephant in the room. This one’s easy. Have a look at the panel’s bios above and see if you can see anything in common… that’s right, these are all turnaround stories, wonderful, triumphant turnaround stories, rallying around an organisation in crisis.

Here’s a rough transcript of what happened next:

Davies (from the floor): We’ve heard resilience defined tonight a bit like an elastic band, which stretches and bounces back. And all of the case studies we’ve heard tonight have talked about triumphing in the face of adversity, rallying around a cause or burning platform. So the inference I guess is that we need something to rally around. I guess that my question is, what do you do with an event which could cause the elastic to stretch so much that it snaps? And as we face creeping issues like climate change, or oil, or whatever, how do we make sure we don’t snap our elastic, so that we’re truly resilient?
Spencer: So in times of true crisis, when things really go wrong, how do we do it?
Panel: Pregnant Pause
Spencer: [cheekily jeering] Anyone who wants it…
Audience: Burst of laughter
Panel: …

Well it’s the AFR’s event so it would be unfair of me to give the punch line. Narelle and the team at Boss have promised video of the event on their site and I’m sure they’ll do a great job. I’m looking forward to seeing their take on things.

But in a nutshell the response from the panel was that changes in external environment pose real challenges which are difficult. And they are challenges… And they are difficult… Followed by a quick save by Adam asking NAB’s new CEO to share what goes through your head as a leader when an event like 9/11 happens.

At the end of the session a number of people came up to me and said that it was a good question and what a shame it was that no-one answered it, to which I did confess that it was a bit of an unfair question considering the head start that the Resilient Futures team has on the subject.

But perhaps that was being too kind. It is a real question, and one that has been on my mind since the Resilient WA campaign (a Western Australian Resilient Futures Network campaign that focused on water and climate change - two very important subjects for WA - with the purpose of creating catalytic action to expand the network in WA).

When analysing the conditions in addressing the issues related to water security and climate change in WA, someone on my table pointed out a key condition related to the problem. “We have never had level 4 water restrictions here. No one is aware that we’ve got a problem. There’s no urgency. There’s no call to action.”

I thought back to how many people in the risk profession had confidentially told me that they had either been thankful for a “near miss” to get their organisation focused on risk management, or sat frustrated in a complacent organisation, almost hopeful for a near miss to break the organisation out of its current hubris.

So the question is real. If organisations and people only respond well to “near misses” or cleaning up from near disasters, are we being resilient? Or just tenacious? How do we wake people up to emerging conditions that require proactive adaptation? How do we break away from hubris and complacency? Who’s going to create the catalytic action to get things started?

These are questions which we work through every day at the RFN at different levels, and we’re very interested in your thoughts. Please share.

***

Post-script 1: On a lighter note, I asked Adam Spencer after the show whether he had any tips as ‘Australia’s most resilient MC’. He shared with me that his technique is to have enormous amounts of material at your disposal in case your interviewees clam up, but to only fall back on this if required. With the confidence of this fallback position, he is then very comfortable to ad-lib, go with the flow and avoid the predictable script entirely. We joked that “It takes hours of rehearsal to be spontaneous.” But in this small statement, Adam pointed out a number of key attributes of our resilience model – redundancy and fallback, creativity, willingness to jettison redundant material, ebbing and flowing with conditions, and prospering though this process. Adam – thanks for the metaphor and living example!

***

Todd Davies is our theme leader on risk, governance and assurance and aims to provoke and challenge prevailing thinking in these areas. He is a bit obsessed with emerging risk at the moment which means he has an annoying habit of asking difficult questions at public events. Todd’s comments are his own and not necessarily those of the RF Network. For more of his work, please click here.

Related posts

• October 26, 2008 — AXA, Perpetual, Challenger - As the backloop grows stronger it draws more entities in (4)
• October 14, 2008 — Real Risks of Business as Usual (0)
• August 23, 2008 — Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) – Main Event or a Side Show? (7)
• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• November 6, 2008 — Election Reaction - The Audacity of Resilience (2)

Nicholas Taleb recently popularised the idea of a black swan as an event which someone didn’t see coming. He now has a best seller on the idea, asking questions like:

• Why don’t we anticipate big disruptions?
• Why didn’t we see subprime coming?
• What’s the next big disruption?

These days I spend most of my thinking time on these sorts of questions and keeping an eye out for black swans, elephants in the room and 800 pound gorillas.  We tend to call them emerging risks, emerging conditions or discontinuities, depending on where we’re applying the thinking at the time.  The thing they have in common is they are disruptive at a significant scale, which creates disruptions for some and opportunities for others.

Condition change - a price on carbon

In Australia, our version of an emission trading scheme (ETS) is taking shape, and is being branded as the CPRS. This CPRS is not to be confused with the Canadian Public Relations Society – it’s the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme – which is useful branding in case we forget why the scheme was introduced as an industry builds around it.

Industry is now intensely focused on the CPRS. And why not? It’s in the media, it’s in black and white, it’s tangible and its proposed to be implemented in the next few years. Companies can do financial modelling to work out the day 1 winners and losers, and industry lobbyists can have a field day arguing for free permits and to keep their cost base as close to the status quo as possible.  They can also complain about competitive disadvantage caused by paying for carbon created, and being caught off guard by not anticipating the conditions that they now find themselves in.  The demands for taxpayer-funded compensation begin.

At a presentation a few months ago, one of Australia’s leading risk experts pointed out that while an ETS and carbon accounting were important, there were bigger things afoot. He explained some of the consequences of climate change – increased frequency of severe weather events, issues with rainfall and water security and the like. He took pains to emphasise the bigger picture beyond this regulatory change.

Needless to say that I was a little surprised during the Q&A at the end of the presentation to find that nearly all questions from the audience revolved around carbon accounting and emissions trading. Had no-one been listening? Had the message failed to sink in? Why was this? Or to bastardise Taleb’s language, why were the swans still invisible even when shining a big spotlight on them?

The event in question was attended by senior public sector auditors and risk professionals – the sort of people we count on to ask such questions. I thought about why people gravitated to the accounting, reporting and compliance aspects rather than to the elephant in the room and I guess its human nature - it’s black and white, it’s tangible, it’s measurable and it requires a response in the short term. In other words this part of the issue is more tame than wicked, unlike the bigger problems that governments and their advisors are now attempting to tackle.

So what is the real elephant in the room you may well ask. Well, as I see it there is no longer just one elephant – the ones I see tend to travel in herds.

We’ve already mentioned climate change – there’s plenty of literature on that - more intense and frequent weather related events, sea level rise etc. etc. If you analyse search metrics on the web you’ll see the term’s popularity rise to a highly mainstream top of mind topic. This doesn’t mean people can see it clearly or are operationalising around it, (if fact it seems that many aren’t), but at least it means that they aware of a big lurking presence. This is a good start.

But there are others as well. A few spring to mind:

• Oil shock: The modelling is not yet public but there are indications that fuel prices could go up in the order of 5-10% under a CPRS. This seems like a significant jump, and for many industries this will be, but this needs to be taken in context. If popular opinion among energy forecasters is correct, then we are looking at a doubling, tripling of fuel prices or even more over the next 10 years. Within this context, a 5-10% carbon impost is not the main act – in fact it’s potentially a sideshow at best.
• Reverse globalisation: The industrial revolution and the way we use air travel are driven by cheap energy. If energy prices jump what does this mean to complex supply chains that source lowest cost inputs from around the world? Will countries with cheap labour still be able to compete effectively in global markets in the absence of cheap freight? Was all this effort in establishing free trade agreements for nought? What does this mean to distribution of wealth and currency markets? What knock on effects will these have?

In taking the initial pain on CPRS in Australia, we need to remember that in other markets there was also an outcry by business before their emission trading schemes were introduced. In the years that followed, some argue that the carbon price fell dramatically because cutting carbon was far easier than initially anticipated. The carbon cap was possibly too low and some commentators believe this resulted in many years delay before reaching a sustainable carbon price and a lost opportunity for the environment that will never be regained.

Within this context one has to wonder whether the current bemoaning by some companies and industry groups about the CPRS is really about business disruption or just a clamour for free permits, and for protectionism of obsolete assets and ways of working.

Short term lobbying on the CPRS will generate short term winners and losers and perhaps will help some companies until their CEOs cash in their options.

The medium and long term winners will be those organisations and individuals with a deep understanding of emerging conditions and whole systems at a micro, macro and mega scale. Those entities that understand that you can’t lobby or cartel a changing condition will be the ones on the journey towards resilience and ongoing prosperity, and the ones which create long term shareholder value.

This is one in a series of articles which aims to highlight and explain aspects of key emerging risks through application of the Resilient Futures thinking model and process. The Resilient Futures team and process help individuals and organisations to understand immediate and emergent conditions at the mirco, macro and mega scales, from a whole-of-systems perspective.  This can be a powerful approach to thinking about emergent risk at a strategic scale.  Click here for more articles on emerging risk.

Related posts

• October 14, 2008 — Real Risks of Business as Usual (0)
• August 29, 2008 — Resilient leadership? (3)
• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• October 26, 2008 — AXA, Perpetual, Challenger - As the backloop grows stronger it draws more entities in (4)
• October 10, 2008 — Resilient Futures Strategy Forum - A Resilient WA? (0)

How resilient is your community and are you managing the risks?

On Monday 11^th August 2008, the Resilient Futures Network (Western Australia), in association with the City of South Perth, New Commons (USA) and KT Studios will host a strategy forum designed to assist local government, organizations, businesses and communities to:

1.     Gain an understanding of the conditions that are currently influencing water, water related policy and community action in Western Australia.

 2.     Focus on the relationship between key water related issues (diminishing supply and sea-level rise) and current and future implications for planning and growth.

 3.     Deeply explore the risks associated with the failure to act both in relation to governance and community impact.

 4.     Begin to develop a resilience-based strategic response and key action initiatives, as individual organizations, and potentially, as a network for action.

Join your peers in addressing these key issues and more by participating in a unique strategy forum for senior decision-makers to be held by the Resilient Futures Network at the City of South Perth on Monday 11^th of August 2008. 

For more information contact: David Platt on david.platt@resilientfutures.org

Related posts

• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)
• October 26, 2008 — AXA, Perpetual, Challenger - As the backloop grows stronger it draws more entities in (4)
• October 10, 2008 — Resilient Futures Strategy Forum - A Resilient WA? (0)
• June 20, 2008 — What can we learn from the WA Gas crisis? (8)
• May 21, 2008 — Resilience Planning Course - June 11, Providence, Rhode Island (0)

Fred Presley, AICP of Resilience Partnership, New Commons Session 1: Introduction to Resilience Planning was a great success!

Session 2 is for anyone who already has been engaged by the process, to jump in and experiment with this to create a more resilient community. Whether you are in business, non-profit or government this model gives you a hands on framework to articulate what we most need to face and thrive in today’s chaotic conditions: resilience practice and process.

Session 2: Resilience Planning II - Practice and Process
Fred Presley, AICP of Resilience Partnership, a member company of New Commons
When: Wednesday July 16 at New Commons Studio
Time: 8:30 - 12:00 Noon

Participants will get real world examples of how the methodology is being applied.

Success is not overnight and requires a steady and staged approach as levels of capability and commitment are reached. The Resilient Communities Process involves 8 process steps and we’ll go in depth on each using real applications. See here for more information.

Related posts

• October 20, 2008 — Westerly, RI - A Resilient Futures Discussion October 22, 7:00 p.m. (0)
• August 29, 2008 — Resilient leadership? (3)
• July 9, 2008 — Action Report Card (0)